In a recent tweet, Benjamin Cowen, a prominent crypto analyst with a PhD in Engineering, pointed out some concerning statistics regarding Bitcoin’s recent performance. Cowen’s analysis has sparked thoughts about what the future may hold as the next halving event approaches.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s return in August was -11.31%, which closely aligns with the average of the last two pre-halving years, standing at -11.71%. Looking at the historical data, he found that the average return for Bitcoin in all prior Septembers during pre-halving years was -17.29%, with an average price of $21,400.
The return for #BTC in August ended up being -11.31%, close to the average of the last two pre-halving years (-11.71%).
The average return for #BTC in all prior Septembers in pre-halving years is -17.29% ($21.4k)
If you only take the last 2, it is -5.66% ($24.4k) https://t.co/46nQBApl4U pic.twitter.com/RFhgV3ydrF
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) September 3, 2023
However, considering only the most recent two Septembers, the losses appeared less pronounced, at -5.66%, with an average price of $24,400. Another interesting side is that in 10 years, Bitcoin has shown profitability only two times in September — in 2015 and 2016.
Is Bitcoin doomed?
Cowen’s observations emphasize his belief that Bitcoin tends to exhibit negative dynamics leading up to a halving event. With the next BTC halving expected in less than 220 days, investors are left pondering the implications of these historical trends.
It is important to consider the limitations of the data. The sample size of pre-halving periods is relatively small, making it challenging to predict with certainty whether the negative trends observed in August will persist. On the other hand, BTC has again shown bearish trends since the start of this September, adding to the uncertainty surrounding its future performance.
As Bitcoin approaches its next halving, questions about its price trajectory remain.
