Bitcoin (BTC) bulls lost their grip on $27,000 into Sep. 30 as the monthly and quarterly close loomed large.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin braces for three key candle closes
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a cooling off for BTC price action ahead of the key September candle print.
The largest cryptocurrency remained up nearly 4% month-to-date, this marking its most successful September since 2016, per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Quarterly performance for Q3, conversely, showed BTC/USD down 11.5% at the time of writing.
BTC/USD quarterly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
For traders and analysts, everything could change in the final hours of the monthly candle.
“In the past, a green September resulted in a green October, November and December as well,” popular trader Jelle noted in part of the day’s X analysis.
Will history repeat?”
The day prior, Jelle predicted better conditions for Q4, including a breakout past $30,000 for the first time since early August.
After months of accumulating coins, and slowly preparing us for the bull market, I think its time.
Expecting Q4 to bring new strength — and a break of $30k.
Send it.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/vkl0aq5hRS
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) September 29, 2023
“Textbook bearish technicals”
Monitoring resource Material Indicators meanwhile warned of what it called “textbook” bearish signals from multiple moving averages (MAs) across both longer and shorter timeframes.
Beyond the monthly and weekly close, the impending United States government shutdown should continue to suppress BTC price action unless a solution is found in time, it added.
We are heading into the last #trading day of the month with textbook bearish Technicals from the Key Moving Averages on Daily, Weekly and Monthly TFs and #TrendPrecognition is flashing a new #TradingSignals on the #BTC Daily chart as if it knows we have a looming U.S.… pic.twitter.com/l9Mm2SHyFu
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) September 30, 2023
“There is a high probability that killer whales will be amping up the weekend whale games around Daily, Weekly, and Monthly candle closes. Don’t get lured into a trap,” part of additional commentary from Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan read.
A snapshot of the BTC/USD order book on largest global exchange Binance showed bid liquidity congregating around $26,800. Sellers meanwhile lay in wait at $27,500.
BTC/USD order book data for Binance. Source: Material Indicators/X
Others, such as popular trader Daan Crypto Trades, expected less volatile conditions until immediately before the new week.
“We’ve had volatility last week but open interest has cooled down so I doubt we’ll get any strange price action until maybe later on Sunday,” he told X subscribers on the day.
An accompanying chart showed the CME Group Bitcoin futures opening and closing prices potentially acting as a magnet for BTC spot price — a common phenomenon.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
