BTC price is tapping a new lifeline this week following a dip that tested $25,000 support on Monday. Despite the market being in a dilapidated state due to the lack of liquidity, this swipe at the major support challenged investors’ “wait-and-see” stance, with some seeking fresh exposure to the largest crypto, foreseeing gains of at least to $28,000.
Will BTC Price Uphold Gains To $28k?
Bitcoin’s price sharp bounce from weekly lows around $25,000 not only gained ground above $26,000 but tested the short-term resistance at $26,400 for the second time in September.
The uptrend would have continued uninterrupted if it were not for the short-term overbought conditions and resistance posed by the descending trendline. The Stochastic oscillator reveals that BTC price had to retreat to collect momentum while allowing relatively sidelined investors to buy.
Up a mere 0.2% to $25,871, Bitcoin is seeking support provided by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (red) at $25,844. Keeping this support intact would play a huge role when bulls are mulling the resumption of the uptrend.
BTC/USD four-hour chart | Tradingview
There’s a higher probability that the expected gains to $28,000 will be sustained this time, especially with a buy signal coming from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.
Traders can consider holding onto their long positions as long as the blue MACD line is sitting above the red signal line. This signifies a strong momentum propping Bitcoin for more gains.
A successful break and hold above the descending is another milestone to look forward to, indicating that the downtrend is over and BTC is easing into a stronger uptrend.
Meanwhile, not all analysts are convinced that the downtrend in BTC price is over. Rekt Capital believes Bitcoin completed a double-top pattern earlier this week with the drop to $25,000. This also implies that there is room for another sweep at lower levels, plausibly at $22,000 ahead of the bull market.
However, the analyst and trader cautions that it is “Worth noting but still very early stages & lots can still change in the meantime.”
If #BTC drops to ~$26000 by mid-September then a Double Top may be forming
A breakdown from ~$26000 would validate the DT
And a Measured Move for the DT would be ~$22000
Worth noting but still very early stages & lots can still change in the meantime$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/I4npIDq44f
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 7, 2023
Shrinking Liquidity Still A Challenge
Liquidity in the crypto market has been a major problem since the implosion of FTX and continues to dry up across the board. According to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, volumes have thinned to historical lows both on-chain and off-chain.
“Whilst HODLing remains the market preference, a significant proportion of the supply is teetering on the edge of falling into a significant unrealized loss.”
Liquidity across the digital asset market continues to dry up, with both on-chain and off-chain volumes reaching historical lows.
Whilst HODLing remains the market preference, a significant proportion of the supply is teetering on the edge of falling into a significant… pic.twitter.com/twInh0OqKf
— glassnode (@glassnode) September 11, 2023
The liquidity crunch is likely to be stemming from several factors, including concerns about the regulatory environment, especially in the US. Traders and investors are comfortable with a “wait-and-see” approach, hence the low trading activity.
“Some investors might be hesitant to move their assets due to the prevalence of volatile price swings, especially in the cryptocurrency market.” @AzukaDM, a web3 strategist said via X (Twitter). “This reluctance to trade can result in lower liquidity.”
Another factor resulting in low liquidity levels could be the growing popularity of DeFi and staking platforms which remove a significant amount of digital assets from the circulating supply.
That said, BTC price needs enough momentum to sustain gains above $26,000 with a break above $28,000 likely to propel the crypto beyond $30,000. On the downside, losing the 425,000 support could trigger another sell-off to $22,000.
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